Data story / Trade & tariffs
Tariffs went up. Did America come out ahead?
Seven charts follow implemented tariffs, car imports, reciprocal duties and the cash the U.S. government actually kept.
Editorial snapshot · Trade: July 2026 · Cash: August 2026 · Rates: 8 September 2026. Not a live tracker.
01 / What changed
The tariff came down from its peak.
It is still much higher than before.
Take a Chinese-made gasoline car with a 1.5–3.0 litre engine. The U.S. tariff estimate started at 7.5%, reached 52.5%, then fell to 32.5%.
U.S. tariff on this car category · WTO applied-rate estimate
Read the chart data and source notes
| Effective date | Applied tariff (%) |
|---|---|
| 2025-01-01 | 7.5 |
| 2025-02-04 | 17.5 |
| 2025-03-04 | 27.5 |
| 2025-04-03 | 52.5 |
| 2025-11-10 | 42.5 |
| 2026-02-20 | 32.5 |
WTO–IMF Tariff Tracker · Applied tariffs, HS2022 870323, effective-date observations through 2026-09-08 · Extracted 2026-09-20.
Not the legal bill for every shipment; origin, detail and exemptions matter. Not all duties are retaliation.
$2,250 before → $9,750 now.A $7,500 increase in calculated duty—not a prediction of the retail price.
Source: WTO–IMF tariff data. This is one car category, not every Chinese car. The estimate includes underlying duties and preferences.
02 / What crossed the border
For these cars: fewer from Canada and Mexico.
More from Europe and China.
For that same car category, the number entering the U.S. moved in different directions. There was no uniform collapse—or boom.
Cars imported into the U.S. · October 2025 versus July 2026
Read the chart data and source notes
| Origin | Oct 2025 (vehicles) | Jul 2026 (vehicles, rounded; estimated) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 52323 | 13329 | -74.5 |
| Mexico | 107635 | 52965 | -50.8 |
| European Union | 43256 | 50897 | 17.7 |
| China | 2426 | 2980 | 22.8 |
UN Comtrade · U.S. reporter 842; HS2022 870323; monthly imports; October 2025 and July 2026 · Extracted 2026-09-20.
July quantities include estimates. Not year-on-year or seasonally adjusted; not a pre-tariff baseline or causal comparison.
This is what happened, not proof of why. Prices, demand, production schedules and other factors also affect trade. Our extract starts after the initial 2025 tariff increases.
See the dollar values and full monthly trends
Physical counts and dollar values answer different questions. Here are nominal import values for the same cars and months.
| Origin | Oct ’25 value | Jul ’26 value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | $1.072bn | $0.357bn | -66.7% |
| Mexico | $1.854bn | $1.452bn | -21.7% |
| European Union | $1.628bn | $1.670bn | +2.5% |
| China | $0.058bn | $0.079bn | +37.5% |
Source: UN Comtrade, U.S.-reported trade. Gasoline passenger cars, 1.5–3.0 litres; excludes hybrids and electric vehicles.
03 / The other side
“Reciprocal” does not mean equal.
For the same type of car, China and Canada charge more on U.S. imports than the U.S. charges in return. For Europe and Mexico, the pattern is reversed.
Latest tariff estimates · same car category in both directions
| Trading partner | U.S. tariff on partner’s cars | Partner charges U.S. cars |
|---|---|---|
| Canada | 15.0% | 25.0% |
| Mexico | 15.0% | 0.0% |
| European Union | 15.0% | 0.0% |
| China | 32.5% | 53.3% |
Read the chart data and source notes
| Partner | U.S. on partner cars (%) | Partner on U.S. cars (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Canada | 15 | 25 |
| Mexico | 15 | 0 |
| European Union | 15 | 0 |
| China | 32.5 | 53.3 |
WTO–IMF Tariff Tracker · Applied tariffs, HS2022 870323, effective-date observations through 2026-09-08 · Extracted 2026-09-20.
Not the legal bill for every shipment; origin, detail and exemptions matter. Not all duties are retaliation.
Source: WTO–IMF tariff data. All applied duties are included; not every duty is a retaliatory measure.
04 / The government’s money
Collections rose sharply.
Net revenue barely rose.
Across all goods and trading partners, the U.S. collected $292.5 billion in customs duties through August. But it also paid $125.2 billion in refunds.
U.S. customs cash · same October–August period in each fiscal year
Read the chart data and source notes
| Fiscal year | Gross (USD bn) | Refunds (USD bn) | Net (USD bn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 171.9 | 6.7 | 165.2 |
| 2026 | 292.5 | 125.2 | 167.3 |
U.S. Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement · MTS Table 4 (mts_table_4), Customs Duties; current_month_gross_rcpt_amt, current_month_refund_amt, current_month_net_rcpt_amt · Extracted 2026-09-20.
Refunds paid in a month can relate to earlier imports. Figures in display tables are rounded.
Source: U.S. Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement. All customs duties, not just the new tariffs.
05 / The wider picture
Imports rose faster than exports after February
Read the chart data and source notes
| Month | Imports (USD bn) | Exports (USD bn) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-10 | 151.22516911 | 103.910132081 |
| 2025-11 | 144.359987244 | 92.464371301 |
| 2025-12 | 146.68168361 | 96.190917885 |
| 2026-01 | 133.352706744 | 97.64842605599999 |
| 2026-02 | 133.382174486 | 101.14415518500002 |
| 2026-03 | 158.567118574 | 115.054629052 |
| 2026-04 | 158.028168939 | 115.23706278200001 |
| 2026-05 | 167.111606912 | 113.073597764 |
| 2026-06 | 170.48695965000002 | 112.006557985 |
| 2026-07 | 172.646460599 | 109.800334978 |
UN Comtrade · U.S. reporter 842; total merchandise trade; Canada, China, EU27, Mexico; October 2025–July 2026 · Extracted 2026-09-20.
Not physical volume or seasonally adjusted; no causal tariff effect inferred.
Refunds exceeded collections in May, June and July
Read the chart data and source notes
| Month | Net (USD bn) |
|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 22.154874401 |
| 2026-04 | 22.124133547 |
| 2026-05 | -0.042304566 |
| 2026-06 | -25.555668441 |
| 2026-07 | -8.546441907 |
| 2026-08 | 12.83552729 |
U.S. Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement · MTS Table 4 (mts_table_4), Customs Duties; current_month_gross_rcpt_amt, current_month_refund_amt, current_month_net_rcpt_amt · Extracted 2026-09-20.
Refunds paid in a month can relate to earlier imports. Figures in display tables are rounded.
China has the highest barriers in both directions
Read the chart data and source notes
| Partner | U.S. on partner goods (%) | Partner on U.S. goods (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Canada | 4.194758403 | 4.200774223 |
| China | 25.085474175 | 23.35823914 |
| European Union | 7.87503168 | 0.287577149 |
| Mexico | 4.568707459 | 0.074215201 |
WTO–IMF + UN Comtrade · July 2026 applied product rates weighted with July 2026 bilateral goods imports, separately in each direction · Extracted 2026-09-20.
Each direction uses a different basket of goods; not identical-product reciprocity or the measured duty-to-import-value ratio.
The honest conclusion
A higher trade barrier.
Not a proven victory.
These figures show higher tariffs, uneven trade flows and a small increase in net customs revenue. They do not tell us whether gains for protected businesses outweighed costs to buyers, exporters and firms using imported parts.
What this story can—and cannot—tell you
- The car example is HS2022 product 870323: passenger vehicles with only a spark-ignition engine, over 1,500 and no more than 3,000cc. It is not the whole automotive industry.
- Rates are WTO best-available applied-rate estimates. An individual shipment’s legal bill depends on origin, product detail and applicable exemptions. The $30,000 example holds customs value fixed.
- Physical counts and trade values are different measures. Counts use the same reported unit (vehicles); estimates are flagged. EU totals aggregate its 27 members without adding a separate World total.
- The trade comparison uses October 2025 and July 2026, not a pre-tariff baseline. It cannot isolate seasonality or a causal tariff effect.
- The receipts comparison is fiscal year to date, October through August. It is national cash accounting, not a measure of economic welfare or foreign payments to the U.S.
The evidence behind this edition
Published and extracted 20 September 2026. This is a frozen editorial edition, not a live tariff tracker. The evidence ends on different dates: trade in July, Treasury cash in August, and tariff-rate observations carried forward to 8 September.
Trade and applied rates
UN Comtrade: U.S. reporter 842, HS2022 870323 for the car example, imports and exports by month. Monthly all-goods comparisons cover Canada, China, EU27 and Mexico only. WTO–IMF tariff snapshots: U.S. direction e29a94eb-ccd4-4556-b822-beb8e9079cc0; reverse direction f119c988-708e-451f-bde6-dc50db48d9ef. Effective dates describe implemented measures, not announced intentions. Applied rates are estimates, not shipment-level legal advice.
Government cash
Inspect Treasury’s August 2026 Customs Duties row (JSON). MTS Table 4 reports gross receipts, refunds and net receipts. The same-period YTD comparison sums October–August in each fiscal year; it is not a trailing 12-month measure. Latest row verified against Treasury before publication.
Source extraction reference: c52ecb4b-d94b-415c-b8fb-483d080a56bf. The source snapshot and transformation queries are retained in PSD’s processing records. Chart tables and CSV downloads reproduce the editorial values; rounded values may not sum exactly.
Corrections or questions: [email protected].